Knock on Wood

It’s been an outstanding year of television so far. Television continues to increase in prestige with performances, pushing the boundaries of storytelling, and allowing audiences to get lost in its world for extended periods of time. It can be overwhelming, though, because there are way too many things to keep up with.

That’s where I come in…

I watch a borderline impractical amount of television. Sure, I’m still a movie guy at heart; however, there is incredible television to be watched, and it can help to have someone cut through the shit and tell you if something is worth your time. What better way to introduce myself than with some analysis of the 2025 Primetime Emmy Awards?

The 77th Annual Primetime Emmy Awards will take place on Sunday, September 14th, airing live on both CBS and Paramount+. Nate Bargatze will return to host this year’s ceremony. Eligibility for the Emmys is decided on a case-by-case basis, but the general window of eligibility for shows is June 1st, 2024, through May 31st, 2025. I’ve watched almost every season of television nominated this year, so without further ado, let’s go through the major categories.

Outstanding Drama Series

• Andor (Disney+)  
• The Diplomat (Netflix)  
• The Last of Us (Netflix) 
• Paradise (Hulu)  
• The Pitt (HBO Max)
• Severance (Apple TV+) 
• Slow Horses (Apple TV+)  
• The White Lotus (HBO)

2024 Winner: Shōgun (FX)

The White Lotus is the only show nominated this year that has previously taken the top prize, but it was in a different category with far less competition than it does now. The win in this category hasn’t gone to a show that isn’t Breaking Bad, Game of Thrones, or Succession since 2013, except for one win each for The Crown, The Handmaid’s Tale, and Shōgun. That’s pretty remarkable consistency among a couple of shows. Prestige television is at a bit of a crossroads at the moment, and for the first time in a while, we will have a brand new show that doesn’t have previous success contending for the top prize.

Severance is the clear favorite here, with the most nominations and a high degree of prestige. An argument can be made for The Pitt, which feels like a conventional pick and a return to form, similar to Succession. Andor has the fandom and hard-hitting moments that the Emmys crave so much, but I don’t think Emmy voters are going to give a Star Wars show the top prize, even though it is absolutely worthy. Then again, I didn’t know Game of Thrones would ever break through until it did.

In the end, Severance has the most nominations and is fresh in people’s minds, so I’m going to slightly favor it even with The Pitt hanging out there. Next year will be The Pitt’s time, but not this year.

• Prediction: Severance (Apple TV+) 
• Who I Would Vote For: Andor (Disney+) 
• Dark Horse: The Pitt (HBO Max)

Outstanding Comedy Series

• Abbott Elementary (ABC)  
• The Bear (FX)
• Hacks (HBO Max)
• Nobody Wants This (Netflix)  
• Only Murders in the Building (Hulu)
• Shrinking (Apple TV+)
• The Studio (Apple TV+)
• What We Do in the Shadows (FX)  

2024 Winner: Hacks (HBO Max)

With The Bear losing some steam among voters and Hacks still lingering, it’s hard to tell where the voting body is headed with this award. It’s once again a stacked category, with lots of worthy inclusions. Abbott Elementary is getting the Better Call Saul treatment, but at least the show has won some awards, unlike the Breaking Bad prequel. Shrinking has the pedigree of what the Emmys might look for in the past, even with Bill Lawrence’s pull from Ted Lasso still in effect. 

The real question here is whether the Emmy Awards value innovation or consistency. We’ve seen it come out both ways, but it’s hard to deny that The Studio is the best series in the category.

• Prediction: The Studio (Apple TV+)
• Who I Would Vote For: Shrinking (Apple TV+)
• Dark Horse: Hacks (HBO Max)

Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series

• Adolescence (Netflix)
• Black Mirror (Netflix)
• Dying for Sex (FX)
• Monster: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story (Netflix)
• The Penguin (HBO)

2024 Winner: Baby Reindeer (Netflix)

This is the actual battle of this year’s Emmys. Who will win out between The Penguin and Adolescence? It’s always been an odd quirk of the Emmy Awards that their eligibility period falls in the middle of the year. It’s why The Penguin got all its love from the Golden Globes, and now it comes face-to-face with a true contender in Adolescence. For the prestige it brings and the message it sends, Adolescence wins here even though The Penguin will be hard to top.

• Prediction: Adolescence (Netflix)
• Who I Would Vote For: Adolescence (Netflix)
• Dark Horse: The Penguin (HBO)

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series

• Sterling K. Brown (Paradise) 
• Gary Oldman (Slow Horses) 
• Pedro Pascal (The Last of Us)   
• Adam Scott (Severance) 
• Noah Wyle (The Pitt) 

2024 Winner: Hiroyuki Sanada (Shōgun) 

Oldman has been the face of consistency with his fantastic performance in Slow Horses. Pascal is a guest star at best in The Last of Us. Wyle was my favorite performance this year; however, Scott takes this handily, especially with that performance in the final episode of Severance’s second season.

• Prediction: Adam Scott (Severance) 
• Who I Would Vote For: Noah Wyle (The Pitt)
• Dark Horse: Noah Wyle (The Pitt)  

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series

• Kathy Bates (Matlock)
• Sharon Horgan (Bad Sisters)
• Britt Lower (Severance)
• Bella Ramsey (The Last of Us)
• Keri Russell (The Diplomat)

2024 Winner: Anna Sawai (Shōgun)  

This category is a toss-up. All are good performances, but there is no true standout. The closest two I can think of are Ramsey and Lower. In a close vote for that performance in the second episode of Season Two, Ramsey will most likely eke out the win.

• Prediction: Bella Ramsey (The Last of Us)
• Who I Would Vote For: Bella Ramsey (The Last of Us)
• Dark Horse: Britt Lower (Severance)

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series

• Adam Brody (Nobody Wants This) 
• Seth Rogen (The Studio)
• Jason Segel (Shrinking)
• Martin Short (Only Murders in the Building) 
• Jeremy Allen White (The Bear)

2024 Winner: Jeremy Allen White (The Bear)

I don’t understand how Short gets a nomination, but Martin doesn’t. Brody was excellent in Nobody Wants This. Segal is amazing in Shrinking. White is the main, but I think the category fraud The Bear has been committing is finally starting to catch up with it. His streak will almost certainly break in Rogen’s favor.

• Prediction: Seth Rogen (The Studio)
• Who I Would Vote For: Seth Rogen (The Studio)
• Dark Horse: Jeremy Allen White (The Bear)

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series

• Uzo Aduba (The Residence)
• Kristen Bell (Nobody Wants This) 
• Quinta Brunson (Abbott Elementary) 
• Ayo Edebiri (The Bear)
• Jean Smart (Hacks) 

2024 Winner: Jean Smart (Hacks) 

I want to give credit to Bell for her performance in Nobody Wants This. In a largely thankless role, she gives a remarkable performance that is both funny and nuanced while juggling so many different emotions. The Residence was cancelled far too soon, and unfortunately, Aduba’s performance will be forgotten over time.

Consistency is the name of the game here, and that means Smart will continue her win streak.

• Prediction: Jean Smart (Hacks)
• Who I Would Vote For: Kristen Bell (Nobody Wants This) 
• Dark Horse: Ayo Edebiri (The Bear)

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie

• Colin Farrell (The Penguin) 
• Stephen Graham (Adolescence) 
• Jake Gyllenhaal (Presumed Innocent) 
• Brian Tyree Henry (Dope Thief) 
• Cooper Koch (Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story) 

2024 Winner: Richard Gadd (Baby Reindeer) 

Farrell and Graham are the main fighters in this battle. Aside from the top prize, this acting category pits two outstanding performances against each other. It all boils down to timing. Do people still remember Farrell’s performance in The Penguin? Does Graham do enough in Adolescence to move the needle? Because of the final episode of The Penguin, Farrell edges it out.

• Prediction: Colin Farrell (The Penguin) 
• Who I Would Vote For: Colin Farrell (The Penguin) 
• Dark Horse: Stephen Graham (Adolescence) 

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie

• Cate Blanchett (Disclaimer) 
• Meghann Fahy (Sirens) 
• Rashida Jones (Black Mirror) 
• Cristin Milioti (The Penguin)
• Michelle Williams (Dying for Sex) 

2024 Winner: Jodie Foster (True Detective: Night Country)

Flowers to Jones and Williams for their performances in Black Mirror and Dying for Sex, respectively. Jones gives a performance riddled with pain and sorrow in her one episode. From the moment I saw Dying for Sex, I thought Williams was a lock for a nomination, and in any other year, she would probably win. Since there is no one from Adolescence here, it seems like a lock that Milioti cinches this one.

• Prediction: Cristin Milioti (The Penguin)
• Who I Would Vote For: Cristin Milioti (The Penguin)
• Dark Horse: Michelle Williams (Dying for Sex)

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series

• Zach Cherry (Severance)
• Walton Goggins (The White Lotus)
• Jason Isaacs (The White Lotus)
• James Marsden (Paradise)
• Matthew Macfadyen (Succession)
• Sam Rockwell (The White Lotus)
• Tramell Tillman (Severance)
• John Turturro (Severance)

2024 Winner: Billy Crudup (The Morning Show)

Severance vs. The White Lotus looms large in this category. With all due respect to Marsden, he’s just on the same level as all the others. Only one performance from The White Lotus was strong enough to be included here, so this is a fight between Goggins and either Cherry or Tillman in Severance. Tillman showed me more than Cherry did for Severance, but Cherry feels like the more likely pick. I do think both ultimately fall to Goggins, though.

• Prediction: Walton Goggins (The White Lotus)
• Who I Would Vote For: Tramell Tillman (Severance)
• Dark Horse: Zach Cherry (Severance)

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series

• Patricia Arquette (Severance)
• Carrie Coon (The White Lotus)
• Katherine LaNasa (The Pitt)
• Julianne Nicholson (Paradise)
• Parker Posey (The White Lotus)
• Natasha Rothwell (The White Lotus)
• Aimee Lou Wood (The White Lotus)

2024 Winner: Elizabeth Debicki (The Crown)

The White Lotus continues to loom large in the drama category after jumping ship from the Anthology Series category. There is only one performance worth voting on that season. Arquette gets an expanded role in Severance, but I don’t think it’s enough to be considered for the award. Nicholson is outstanding in Paradise, but will simply be cannon fodder. For me, LaNasa is the clear pick, but Wood will win the Emmy.

• Prediction: Aimee Lou Wood (The White Lotus)
• Who I Would Vote For: Katherine LaNasa (The Pitt)
• Dark Horse: Patricia Arquette (Severance)

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series

• Ike Barinholtz (The Studio)
• Coleman Domingo (The Four Seasons)
• Harrison Ford (Shrinking)
• Jeff Hiller (Somebody Somewhere)
• Ebon Moss-Bachrach (The Bear)
• Michael Urie (Shrinking)
• Bowen Yang (Saturday Night Live)

2024 Winner: Ebon Moss-Bachrach (The Bear)

Some noticeable inclusions to this list after a couple of years of snubs include Ford, Hiller, and Urie. If there were a way to retroactively vote for Ford for both Seasons One and Two of Shrinking, I would do it without hesitation. Domingo is the standout performance of The Four Seasons, even though I was a little surprised that Steve Carell or Will Forte didn’t get any recognition. Yang is a mainstay in this category, but SNL will continue to get snubbed. Similar to Colón-Zayas in The Bear, Moss-Bachrach feels like the natural pick here, even though he wasn’t as good in Season Three, largely being sidelined. Barinholtz in The Studio not only gets the screen time but has the chops to win the award. He gets the official prediction.

• Prediction: Ike Barinholtz (The Studio)
• Who I Would Vote For: Harrison Ford (Shrinking)
• Dark Horse: Ebon Moss-Bachrach (The Bear)

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series

• Liza Colón-Zayas (The Bear)
• Hannah Einbinder (Hacks) 
• Kathryn Hahn (The Studio)
• Janelle James (Abbott Elementary)
• Catherine O’Hara (The Studio)
• Sheryl Lee Ralph (Abbott Elementary)
• Jessica Williams (Shrinking)

2024 Winner: Liza Colón-Zayas (The Bear)

This is a stacked category. Everyone here is absolutely deserving of this award. Category fraud aside with The Bear, all of these performances are strong. It would be easy to pick Colón-Zayas because she won last year, and the Emmy Awards tend to stick close to their past choices. However, there is a case to be made for several of these performances. Williams deserves some recognition for her performance in Shrinking, especially with her character growth from Season One. Einbinder pushes back on Deborah in Hacks, and she’s long overdue. The Studio is this year’s Emmys darling, but neither Hahn nor O’Hara has enough screen time to justify the award. This leaves Abbott Elementary, a perpetual juggernaut in waiting in the awards circuit, and James has the strongest case for best performance – this season changed the character’s trajectory for the better, and she is long overdue after multiple nominations.

That said, I do predict that someone from The Studio gets it, and given her past pedigree with the awards body, I’m taking O’Hara.

• Prediction: Catherine O’Hara (The Studio)
• Who I Would Vote For: Janelle James (Abbott Elementary)
• Dark Horse: Hannah Einbinder (Hacks)

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie

• Javier Bardem (Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story)
• Bill Camp (Presumed Innocent)
• Owen Cooper (Adolescence)
• Rob Delaney (Dying for Sex)
• Peter Sarsgaard (Presumed Innocent)
• Ashley Walters (Adolescence)

2024 Winner: Lamorne Morris (Fargo)

I want to give credit to Camp and Sarsgaard in Presumed Innocent. They’re on opposite ends of the case, but both present the prosecution and defense in staggering ways. Sarsagaard beautifully captures the perils of personal grudges with blind ambition, while Camp introduces a defense strategy that mixes friends with facts. Delaney is also outstanding as Neighbor Guy (that’s right, that’s his name throughout the course of the whole show). The care he shows for Molly in Dying for Sex is quite beautiful.

Every awards ceremony has locks for a few categories. This year’s lock is Cooper, in his first acting role ever.

• Prediction: Owen Cooper (Adolescence)
• Who I Would Vote For: Owen Cooper (Adolescence)
• Dark Horse: Rob Delaney (Dying for Sex)

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie

• Erin Doherty (Adolescence)
• Ruth Negga (Presumed Innocent)
• Deidre O’Connell (The Penguin)
• Chloë Sevigny (Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story)
• Jenny Slate (Dying for Sex)
• Christine Tremarco (Adolescence)

2024 Winner: Jessica Gunning (Baby Reindeer)

This is a shockingly stacked category, presenting a conundrum that will have reverberations throughout the Emmy Awards for the Limited or Anthology Series categories. The battle between The Penguin and Adolescence will be felt throughout all acting categories, but this shouldn’t discount that Slate gives a powerhouse performance as Nikki, Molly’s best friend and caregiver in Dying for Sex. I’m ecstatic that she got nominated, but I doubt she has a chance. Negga is remarkable as Barbara, standing by her husband Rusty even though their relationship hits plenty of snags. Monster/s getting awards consideration is proof that Ryan Murphy and company know how to campaign really well, even if they make popcorn television at best.

This is a two-nominee race: O’Connell vs. Doherty. O’Connell has the screen time and the emotional beats for The Penguin. Each scene she has with Oz gives you shivers. Doherty, on the other hand, delivers a once-in-a-lifetime performance in a single episode of Adolescence. If The Penguin had come out later, I would have said O’Connell, and I honestly think she can win. Doherty squeaks by with the win, though.

• Prediction: Erin Doherty (Adolescence)
• Who I Would Vote For: Erin Doherty (Adolescence)
• Dark Horse: Deidre O’Connell (The Penguin)

Stay tuned for more once the winners are announced on Sunday. What are some of your predictions? Comment below and let us know!